Record jet fuel prices put Cyprus's winter tourism push at risk

European aviation fuel averaged $4.84 a gallon in October, 114% above the $2.26 average in January and February, according to IATA figures reported by Cyprus Mail. Eurocontrol said it was the highest monthly level since the crisis began. The price reached $4.93 a gallon on 27 October.

The timing is awkward for Cyprus. October is when airlines wind down their summer programmes and the island enters the quieter season it has spent years trying to fill. Higher fuel does not raise every fare at once, because airlines buy much of their fuel in advance. It does set the cost of the seats that go on sale next.

The lag before fares move

Ryanair secured about $67 a barrel for this year through advance purchasing. Michael O’Leary, its chief executive, expects prices to double next year as that protection expires. The airline’s net profit fell 15% to €2.15 billion in the first half of its financial year, from €2.54 billion, while operating costs rose 10% to €7.69 billion.

O’Leary has predicted that ticket prices could rise by as much as 20% in 2027, which the Cyprus Mail report describes as potentially the largest annual increase in European aviation history. “We guarantee no fuel surcharges, but there is no doubt that air fares are going to rise significantly in 2027 because of much higher oil prices,” he said in an interview with Euronews.

That is a forecast, not a decision. Fares also depend on demand, competition and airport charges. But capacity is already moving. Ryanair plans to remove 20 routes and more than one million seats from its Belgian winter schedule, a reduction it links to Belgium’s plan to raise aviation tax from €2 to €7 in January 2027. SAS and easyJet have also cut flights this year.

Supply is tight, not short

Eurocontrol says jet fuel supplies remain constrained. On 22 October the European Commission confirmed that the market was experiencing supply tightness, while saying there was no physical shortage of aviation fuel in Europe. It warned that further disruption remained a risk.

The weekly benchmark has eased a little. IATA’s monitor put the global average jet fuel price at $191.54 a barrel last week, down 2.6% on the previous week. That is a refinery benchmark, not the price an airline pays at a European airport, and it does not undo the October increase.

Demand is weak at the same time. IATA’s September figures showed global passenger demand down 0.5% year on year and capacity down 0.2%. “We can expect this to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice-president for sustainability and chief economist.

The Cypriot numbers

Cyprus earned €562 million from tourism in August, down 3.4% from €581.8 million a year earlier, according to the statistical service. Arrivals fell from 602,026 to 581,880. For January to August, revenue was €2.32 billion, 6.2% below the same period in 2025.

The British market, still the largest at 30.5% of arrivals, sent 177,603 visitors in August against 193,091 a year earlier. Israeli arrivals rose from 105,597 to 135,628 and now account for 23.3%. The average stay shortened from 9.2 days to 8.9.

Greece offers a regional comparison. Flights there fell 7% in the week of 19 to 25 October, against a European average decline of 2.3%, according to Eurocontrol figures cited in the report.

For the winter months, the price of a seat matters more than in August, when school holidays do much of the selling. A market that is already 6.2% down on revenue for the year has less room to absorb a fare increase. The next signal will be the winter schedule: which routes stay, and at what price.